Lead for Hispaniola & Southern Bahamas
See The Very First Warn Typhoon Middle “Survival Guide”
***** CHECK ALWAYS & RE-CHECK THE NEW ESTIMATE & POSTS! *****
Possible local – Jax/NE Fl./SE Ga. impacts from“Fred” DEPENDENT ON CURRENT FORECAST:
* upsurge in exotic humidity delayed through the weekend break into early in a few days
* many heavier groups of showers & t’storms Sunday/Mon./Tue.
* remote waterspouts & tornadoes
* slightly breezy
* little or no violent storm rush
* CHECK REAR FOR NEWS!!
The durable exotic trend moved into the NE Caribbean Tue. & am upgraded west of Puerto Rico to sunny violent storm “Fred” Tue. night – the 6th called violent storm with the Atlantic season & about 2 1/2 days prior to the avg. go out of Aug. 28th. The avg. go out for earliest hurricane, incidentally, is Aug. tenth. Elsa temporarily turned into a hurricane during the early July. Back to Fred – prediction models have creep into pretty reasonable arrangement on growth as well as on the course & pace.
Fred will relocate gradually west/northwest with a facility which could have a tendency to “jump across”
somewhat until & unless a decent inner basic is made. Fred will slow down by latter when you look at the times in to the week because blow times the western edge of the substantial Bermuda extreme. One of the greater complicating points is definitely terrain relationships most notably Puerto Rico & Hispaniola & perhaps Cuba. There is also some dry air to get over though total ailments to be more advantageous after in times. Apparently the inadequately structured core will largely steer clear of Puerto Rico & probably maybe not fork out a lot of time over the Dominican Republic, so Fred may appear across much SW Atlantic in fairly “decent” shape. Both the GFS & European have initialized really & take the system through Florida strait covering the few days & toward the east Gulf of Mexico nonetheless European unit continues to be more laggard & a bit more westbound even though GFS is a touch faster & somewhat north & east. The GFS has gotten a right/east opinion the very last couple of weeks with warm cyclones around E. Pacific, however, the design ended up being a definite “winner” during Elsa 4-5 weeks hence. A stronger shape appear to be essentially the most rational prediction now considering how stout the ridge happens to be since in essence will. As such, about a somewhat much more westward track – before switching a lot more north – looks like it’s the ideal solution now.
Hence. tropical force circumstances will occur over some of the better Antilles a subsequent day or two however with increasing conditions for Puerto Rico by later part of the Wed. while squalls & durable winds influence Hispaniola & the northern area & east shores of Cuba. A tropical system/cyclone of “some sort” would be near Fl. & the east Gulf along the week end into early next week.
I am unable to stress this sufficient: keep tuned in & sit up up to now of the contemporary predictions.
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